1, Isidingo sokuphela kwe-Photovoltaic: Isidingo somthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaic sinamandla, futhi isidingo se-polysilicon siyahlehliswa ngokusekelwe kwisibikezelo somthamo ofakiwe
1.1.Ukusetshenziswa kwe-Polysilicon: Umhlaba jikeleleumthamo wokusetshenziswa ukhula kancane kancane, ikakhulukazi ukukhiqiza amandla e-photovoltaic
Eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, umhlaba wonkei-polysiliconukusetshenziswa kuye kwaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, futhi ingxenye yaseChina iqhubekile nokukhula, eholwa yimboni ye-photovoltaic.Kusukela ngo-2012 kuya ku-2021, ukusetshenziswa kwe-polysilicon emhlabeni jikelele ngokuvamile kukhombisa ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo, kukhuphuka kusuka kumathani angama-237,000 kuya kumathani angaba ngu-653,000.Ngo-2018, inqubomgomo entsha yase-China engu-531 ye-photovoltaic yethulwa, eyehlise ngokusobala inani le-subsidy yokukhiqiza amandla e-photovoltaic.Umthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa wehle ngo-18% unyaka nonyaka, futhi isidingo se-polysilicon sathinteka.Kusukela ngo-2019, umbuso wethule inani lezinqubomgomo zokuthuthukisa ukulinganiswa kwegridi yama-photovoltaics.Ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwemboni ye-photovoltaic, isidingo se-polysilicon singene esikhathini sokukhula ngokushesha.Ngalesi sikhathi, ingxenye yokusetshenziswa kwe-polysilicon yaseChina ekusetshenzisweni okuphelele komhlaba wonke kwaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, kusuka ku-61.5% ngo-2012 kuya ku-93.9% ngo-2021, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yemboni ye-photovoltaic yaseChina ekhula ngokushesha.Ngokombono wephethini yokusetshenziswa komhlaba wonke yezinhlobo ezahlukene ze-polysilicon ngo-2021, izinto ze-silicon ezisetshenziselwa amaseli e-photovoltaic zizobalelwa okungenani ama-94%, lapho i-polysilicon yebanga lelanga kanye ne-silicon eyimbudumbudu ibalelwa ku-91% no-3%, ngokulandelana, kuyilapho. i-electronic-grade polysilicon engasetshenziswa kuma-chips akhawunti ama-94%.Isilinganiso singu-6%, okubonisa ukuthi isidingo samanje se-polysilicon sibuswa ama-photovoltaics.Kulindeleke ukuthi ngokufudumala kwenqubomgomo ye-dual-carbon, isidingo somthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaic sizoqina, futhi ukusetshenziswa kanye nengxenye ye-polysilicon yebanga lelanga kuzoqhubeka nokukhula.
1.2.I-Silicon wafer: i-monocrystalline silicon wafer ithatha okujwayelekile, futhi ubuchwepheshe obuqhubekayo beCzochralski bukhula ngokushesha.
Isixhumanisi esiqondile esisezansi somfula we-polysilicon ama-silicon wafers, futhi iChina njengamanje ibusa imakethe ye-silicon wafer yomhlaba wonke.Kusukela ngo-2012 kuya ku-2021, umthamo wokukhiqiza we-silicon wafer wembulunga yonke nowaseShayina uqhubekile nokukhula, futhi imboni ye-photovoltaic yaqhubeka nokudlondlobala.Ama-silicone wafers asebenza njengebhuloho elixhuma izinto ze-silicon namabhethri, futhi akukho mthwalo emandleni okukhiqiza, ngakho-ke iyaqhubeka nokuheha inani elikhulu lezinkampani ukuthi zingene embonini.Ngo-2021, abakhiqizi be-silicon wafer baseShayina base bakhule kakhuluukukhiqizaamandla okuphuma ku-213.5GW, okuqhube ukukhiqizwa kwe-silicon wafer emhlabeni wonke ukuthi kukhuphuke kuze kufike ku-215.4GW.Ngokomthamo wokukhiqiza okhona nosanda kukhuphuka e-China, kulindeleke ukuthi izinga lokukhula lonyaka ligcine u-15-25% eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-wafer yaseChina kusazogcina isikhundla esiphezulu emhlabeni jikelele.
I-silicon ye-polycrystalline ingenziwa ibe yi-polycrystalline silicon ingots noma izinduku ze-silicon ze-monocrystalline.Inqubo yokukhiqiza ye-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon ikakhulukazi ihlanganisa indlela yokuphonsa kanye nendlela yokuncibilika eqondile.Njengamanje, uhlobo lwesibili luyindlela eyinhloko, futhi izinga lokulahlekelwa ngokuyisisekelo ligcinwa cishe ku-5%.Indlela yokuphonsa ngokuyinhloko iwukuncibilikisa impahla ye-silicon ku-crucible kuqala, bese uyiphonsa kwenye i-crucible preheated ukuze iphole.Ngokulawula izinga lokupholisa, i-polycrystalline silicon ingot iphonswa ubuchwepheshe bokuqiniswa kokuqondisa.Inqubo yokuncibilika okushisayo yendlela yokuncibilika okuqondile iyafana nendlela yokukhipha, lapho i-polysilicon incibilika ngokuqondile ku-crucible kuqala, kodwa isinyathelo sokupholisa sihlukile endleleni yokukhipha.Nakuba lezi zindlela ezimbili zifana kakhulu ngokwemvelo, indlela yokuncibilika eqondile idinga kuphela i-crucible eyodwa, futhi umkhiqizo we-polysilicon okhiqizwayo usezingeni elihle, elikhuthaza ukukhula kwe-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon ene-orientation engcono, futhi inqubo yokukhula ilula i-automate, engenza isikhundla sangaphakathi sokunciphisa Iphutha lekristalu.Njengamanje, amabhizinisi ahamba phambili embonini yezinto zamandla elanga ngokuvamile asebenzisa indlela yokuncibilika eqondile ukwenza i-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon, futhi okuqukethwe kwekhabhoni nomoya-mpilo kuphansi kakhulu, okulawulwa ngaphansi kwe-10ppma ne-16ppma.Esikhathini esizayo, ukukhiqizwa kwe-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon kusazolawulwa indlela yokuncibilika okuqondile, futhi izinga lokulahlekelwa lizohlala lizungeze i-5% phakathi neminyaka emihlanu.
Ukukhiqizwa kwezinduku ze-silicon ze-monocrystalline kusekelwe kakhulu endleleni ye-Czochralski, ehambisana nendlela yokuncibilikisa indawo yokumiswa eqondile, futhi imikhiqizo ekhiqizwa yilokhu kokubili inokusetshenziswa okuhlukile.Indlela ye-Czochralski isebenzisa ukumelana ne-graphite ukushisa i-silicon ye-polycrystalline ku-high-purity quartz crucible ohlelweni olushisayo lweshubhu eqondile ukuyincibilikisa, bese ufaka ikristalu lembewu ebusweni bokuncibilika ukuze kuhlanganiswe, bese uzungezisa ikristalu yembewu ngenkathi uguqula crucible., ikristalu yembewu ikhuphukela phezulu kancane kancane, futhi i-silicon ye-monocrystalline itholakala ngezinqubo zokuhlwanyela, ukukhulisa, ukuphenduka kwamahlombe, ukukhula kobubanzi obulinganayo, nokuqeda.Indlela yokuncibilikisa indawo entantayo eqondile isho ukulungisa i-columnar high-purity polycrystalline material egumbini lesithando somlilo, ukuhambisa ikhoyili yensimbi kancane kancane eduze nobude be-polycrystalline bese udlula ku-columnar polycrystalline, kanye nokudlulisa ifrikhwensi yomsakazo onamandla aphezulu ensimbi. ikhoyili ukwenza Ingxenye yangaphakathi yekhoyili yensika ye-polycrystalline incibilike, futhi ngemva kokuba ikhoyili isusiwe, inyibiliki iyancibilika ukuze yakhe ikristalu eyodwa.Ngenxa yezinqubo ezahlukene zokukhiqiza, kunomehluko emishinini yokukhiqiza, izindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nekhwalithi yomkhiqizo.Njengamanje, imikhiqizo etholwe indlela yokuncibilika kwendawo inokuhlanzeka okuphezulu futhi ingasetshenziselwa ukwakhiwa kwamadivaysi e-semiconductor, kuyilapho indlela ye-Czochralski ingahlangabezana nemibandela yokukhiqiza i-silicon eyodwa ye-crystal yamaseli e-photovoltaic futhi inezindleko eziphansi, ngakho-ke indlela evamile.Ngo-2021, isabelo semakethe sendlela yokudonsa eqondile cishe singama-85%, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke kancane eminyakeni embalwa ezayo.Amasheya emakethe ngo-2025 nango-2030 abikezelwa ukuthi angaba ngama-87% nama-90% ngokulandelana.Ngokuya nge-district crystal silicon encibilika, ukugxila embonini ye-district crystal silicon eyodwa kuphezulu kakhulu emhlabeni.ukutholwa), TOPSIL (Denmark) .Ngokuzayo, isikali sokukhishwa kwe-silicon encibilikisiwe yekristalu eyodwa ngeke sikhuphuke kakhulu.Isizathu siwukuthi ubuchwepheshe obuhlobene baseShayina buye emuva uma kuqhathaniswa neJapane neJalimane, ikakhulukazi umthamo wezinto zokushisisa ezinemvamisa ephezulu kanye nezimo zenqubo yokwenza ikristalu.Ubuchwepheshe bekristalu ehlanganisiwe ye-silicon endaweni yobubanzi obukhulu budinga amabhizinisi aseShayina ukuthi aqhubeke nokuzihlola ngokwawo.
Indlela ye-Czochralski ingahlukaniswa ngobuchwepheshe obuqhubekayo bokudonsa i-crystal (CCZ) kanye nobuchwepheshe bokudonsa i-crystal obuphindaphindiwe (RCZ).Njengamanje, indlela ejwayelekile embonini yi-RCZ, esesigabeni soguquko ukusuka ku-RCZ ukuya ku-CCZ.Izinyathelo ze-crystal zokudonsa nezokudla ze-RZC zizimele komunye nomunye.Ngaphambi kokudonsa ngakunye, i-crystal ingot eyodwa kufanele ipholile futhi isuswe ekamelweni lesango, kuyilapho i-CCZ ingabona ukuphakela nokuncibilika ngenkathi idonsa.I-RCZ isivuthiwe, futhi sincane indawo yokuthuthukiswa kwezobuchwepheshe esikhathini esizayo;kuyilapho i-CCZ inezinzuzo zokunciphisa izindleko kanye nokwenza ngcono ukusebenza kahle, futhi isesigabeni sokuthuthuka ngokushesha.Mayelana nezindleko, uma kuqhathaniswa ne-RCZ, ethatha cishe amahora angu-8 ngaphambi kokuthi kukhishwe induku eyodwa, i-CCZ ingathuthukisa kakhulu ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza, inciphise izindleko ezinkulu kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamandla ngokuqeda lesi sinyathelo.Isamba sokukhishwa kwesithando somlilo esisodwa singaphezulu kuka-20% ngaphezu kwalokho kwe-RCZ.Izindleko zokukhiqiza zingaphansi kuka-10% kune-RCZ.Ngokusebenza kahle, i-CCZ ingaqedela ukudweba kwe-8-10 eyodwa ye-crystal crystal rods ngaphakathi komjikelezo wokuphila we-crucible (amahora angu-250), kuyilapho i-RCZ ingaqeda cishe i-4, futhi ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza kunganyuswa ngo-100-150% .Mayelana nekhwalithi, i-CCZ inokumelana okufana kakhulu, okuqukethwe kwe-oksijini okuphansi, nokuqoqwa kancane kokungcola kwensimbi, ngakho-ke ifaneleka kakhulu ukulungiswa kwama-wafers e-crystal crystal crystal ohlobo olulodwa, nawo asesikhathini sokuthuthuka ngokushesha.Njengamanje, ezinye izinkampani zaseShayina zimemezele ukuthi zinobuchwepheshe be-CCZ, futhi umzila we-silicon-CCZ-n-uhlobo lwama-silicone we-monocrystalline wafers ucacile ngokuyisisekelo, futhi usuqale ukusebenzisa izinto ze-silicon ze-granular 100%..Ngokuzayo, i-CCZ izongena esikhundleni se-RCZ, kodwa izothatha inqubo ethile.
Inqubo yokukhiqiza yama-wafers e-silicon e-monocrystalline ihlukaniswe ngezinyathelo ezine: ukudonsa, ukusika, ukusika, ukuhlanza nokuhlunga.Ukuvela kwendlela yokusika izintambo zedayimane kwehlise kakhulu izinga lokulahleka kokusika.Inqubo yokudonsa ikristalu ichazwe ngenhla.Inqubo yokusika ihlanganisa ukusika, ukusika, kanye nokusebenza kwe-chamfering.Ukusika ukusebenzisa umshini wokusika ukusika i-silicon yekholomu ibe ama-silicon wafers.Ukuhlanza nokuhlunga yizinyathelo zokugcina ekukhiqizweni kwama-silicon wafers.Indlela yokusika intambo yedayimane inezinzuzo ezisobala ngaphezu kwendlela yokusika intambo yodaka lwendabuko, ebonakala ikakhulukazi ekusetshenzisweni kwesikhathi esifushane nokulahlekelwa okuncane.Ijubane locingo lwedayimane liphindwe kahlanu kunelokusika kwendabuko.Isibonelo, ekusikeni kwe-wafer eyodwa, ukusika kwezintambo zodaka kuthatha cishe amahora ayi-10, futhi ukusika ucingo lwedayimane kuthatha amahora ama-2 kuphela.Ukulahleka kokusikwa kwentambo yedayimane nakho kuncane kakhulu, futhi ungqimba lomonakalo obangelwa ukusika kwentambo yedayimane luncane kunalolo lokusikwa kocingo lodaka, okulungele ukusika amawafa ama-silicon amancane.Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukuze kwehliswe ukulahleka kokulahlekelwa kanye nezindleko zokukhiqiza, izinkampani ziphendukele ezindleleni zokusika izintambo zedayimane, futhi ububanzi bezintambo zamabhasi zedayimane buya ngokuya buncipha.Ngo-2021, ububanzi bebha yebhasi yedayimane buzoba ngu-43-56 μm, futhi ububanzi bebhasi lebhasi ledayimane elisetshenziselwa amawafa e-silicon e-monocrystalline lizokwehla kakhulu futhi liqhubeke nokwehla.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2025 no-2030, ububanzi bezintambo ze-diamond busbars ezisetshenziselwa ukusika ama-silicon wafers e-monocrystalline azoba ngu-36 μm no-33 μm, ngokulandelana, futhi ububanzi bezintambo zamabhasi edayimane ezisetshenziselwa ukusika amawafa e-polycrystalline silicon azoba ngu-51 μm. futhi 51 μm, ngokulandelana.Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi kuneziphambeko nokungcola okuningi kumawafa e-polycrystalline silicon, futhi izintambo ezincane zijwayele ukuphuka.Ngakho-ke, ububanzi bebhasari yocingo lwedayimane esetshenziselwa ukusika i-polycrystalline silicon wafer bukhulu kune-monocrystalline silicon wafers, futhi njengoba isabelo semakethe sama-wafers e-polycrystalline silicon sincipha kancane kancane, sisetshenziselwa i-polycrystalline silicon Ukuncipha kobubanzi bedayimane. amabhasi ocingo asikwe ngezingcezu sehlile.
Njengamanje, ama-wafers e-silicon ahlukaniswe ngokuyinhloko abe izinhlobo ezimbili: ama-wafers e-polycrystalline silicon nama-monocrystalline silicon wafers.Ama-wafers e-silicon e-Monocrystalline anezinzuzo zesevisi ende kanye nokusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwe-photoelectric.Amawafa e-polycrystalline silicon akhiwe ngezinhlamvu zekristalu ezinomumo ohlukile we-crystal plane, kuyilapho ama-crystal silicon wafers enziwe nge-polycrystalline silicon njengezisetshenziswa zokusetshenziswa futhi anomumo ofanayo we-crystal plane.Ngokubukeka, amawafa e-polycrystalline silicon kanye namawafa e-crystal silicon eyodwa aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka-mnyama futhi ansundu ngokumnyama.Njengoba lezi zimbili zisikwa kusukela ku-polycrystalline silicon ingots kanye nezinduku ze-silicon ze-monocrystalline, ngokulandelana, izimo ziyisikwele kanye ne-quasi-square.Impilo yesevisi yama-wafers e-polycrystalline silicon nama-silicon wafers e-monocrystalline cishe iminyaka engama-20.Uma indlela yokupakisha kanye nemvelo yokusebenzisa kufanelekile, impilo yesevisi ingafinyelela eminyakeni engaphezu kwengu-25.Ngokuvamile, isikhathi sokuphila sama-wafers e-silicon e-monocrystalline side kancane kune-polycrystalline silicon wafers.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ama-wafers e-silicon e-monocrystalline nawo angcono kancane ekusebenzeni kahle kokuguqulwa kwe-photoelectric, futhi ukuminyana kwawo kokugudluzwa nokungcola kwensimbi kuncane kakhulu kunaleyo yamawafa e-polycrystalline silicon.Umthelela ohlanganisiwe wezinto ezihlukene wenza impilo yenkampani yenkampani encane yekristalu eyodwa ibe phezulu izikhathi eziningi kunaleyo yamawafa e-polycrystalline silicon.Ngaleyo ndlela ikhombisa inzuzo yokusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa.Ngo-2021, ukusebenza kahle okuphezulu kakhulu kokuguqulwa kwama-polycrystalline silicon wafers kuzoba cishe ku-21%, kanti lokho kwama-silicon wafers e-monocrystalline kuzofinyelela ku-24.2%.
Ngokungeziwe empilweni ende nokusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa, ama-wafers e-silicon e-monocrystalline nawo anenzuzo yokunciphisa, okulungele ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwe-silicon nezindleko ze-silicon wafer, kodwa naka ukunyuka kwezinga lokuhlukana.Ukuncishiswa kwamawafa e-silicon kusiza ekunciphiseni izindleko zokukhiqiza, futhi inqubo yamanje yokusika ingahlangabezana ngokugcwele nezidingo zokuphungulwa, kodwa ugqinsi lwamawafa e-silicon kumele nawo ahlangabezane nezidingo zokukhiqiza amaseli kanye nezingxenye.Ngokuvamile, ugqinsi lwamawafa e-silicon buye lwehla eminyakeni yamuva nje, futhi ugqinsi lwama-wafers e-polycrystalline silicon makhulu kakhulu kunalawo amawafa e-silicon e-monocrystalline.Amawafa e-silicon e-Monocrystalline aphinde ahlukaniswe abe ama-silicon wafers ohlobo lwe-n kanye nama-silicon wafers ohlobo lwe-p, kuyilapho ama-silicon wafers ohlobo lwe-n ikakhulukazi ahlanganisa ukusetshenziswa kwebhethri le-TOPCon kanye nokusetshenziswa kwebhethri le-HJT.Ngo-2021, ukujiya okumaphakathi kwama-polycrystalline silicon wafers kungu-178μm, futhi ukuntuleka kwesidingo esikhathini esizayo kuzowaqhuba ukuthi aqhubeke azacile.Ngakho-ke, kubikezelwa ukuthi ukushuba kuzokwehla kancane kusuka ku-2022 kuya ku-2024, futhi ukushuba kuzohlala cishe ku-170μm ngemva kuka-2025;ubukhulu obujwayelekile bohlobo lwe-p-monocrystalline wafers we-silicon cishe ngu-170μm, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi lwehle luye ku-155μm no-140μm ngo-2025 no-2030. 150μm, futhi ukujiya okumaphakathi kwamawafa ka-n-silicon asetshenziselwa amaseli e-TOPCon kungu-165μm.135μm.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhiqizwa kwamawafa e-polycrystalline silicon kudla i-silicon eningi kune-monocrystalline silicon wafers, kodwa izinyathelo zokukhiqiza zilula, okuletha izinzuzo zezindleko kumawafa e-polycrystalline silicon.I-silicon ye-Polycrystalline, njengento eluhlaza evamile yama-wafers e-polycrystalline silicon nama-monocrystalline silicon wafers, inokusetshenziswa okuhlukile ekukhiqizeni kokubili, okubangelwa umehluko wokuhlanzeka nezinyathelo zokukhiqiza kokubili.Ngo-2021, ukusetshenziswa kwe-silicon ye-polycrystalline ingot ngu-1.10 kg/kg.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali okulinganiselwe ocwaningweni nasekuthuthukisweni kuzoholela ezinguqukweni ezincane esikhathini esizayo.Ukusetshenziswa kwe-silicon yenduku yokudonsa kungu-1.066 kg/kg, futhi kukhona indawo ethile yokwenza kahle.Kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngu-1.05 kg/kg no-1.043 kg/kg ngo-2025 nango-2030, ngokulandelana.Enqubweni yokudonsa i-crystal eyodwa, ukuncishiswa kokusetshenziswa kwe-silicon yenduku yokudonsa kungafinyelelwa ngokunciphisa ukulahlekelwa kokuhlanza nokuchotshozwa, ukulawula ngokuqinile imvelo yokukhiqiza, ukunciphisa ingxenye yama-primers, ukuthuthukisa ukulawula okunembayo, nokwenza kahle ukuhlukaniswa. kanye nokucubungula ubuchwepheshe bezinto ze-silicon ezonakele.Nakuba ukusetshenziswa kwe-silicon yama-wafers e-polycrystalline silicon kuphezulu, izindleko zokukhiqiza zama-polycrystalline silicon wafers ziphakeme kakhulu ngenxa yokuthi i-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon ikhiqizwa i-hot-melting ingot casting, kuyilapho i-monocrystalline i-silicon ingots ivame ukukhiqizwa ngokukhula kancane ku-Czochralski single crystal furnaces, edla amandla aphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa.Phansi.Ngo-2021, izindleko ezimaphakathi zokukhiqiza zamawafa e-monocrystalline silicon zizoba ngu-0.673 yuan/W, kanye namawafa e-polycrystalline silicon kuzoba ngu-0.66 yuan/W.
Njengoba ubukhulu besicwecwana se-silicon sincipha futhi nobubanzi bebhasi yebhasi yedayimane kuncipha, ukukhishwa kwezinduku ze-silicon/ingots enobubanzi obulinganayo ngekhilogremu kuzokwanda, futhi inani lezinduku ze-silicon zekristalu ezinesisindo esifanayo liyoba phezulu kunalokho. i-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon.Ngokwamandla, amandla asetshenziswa isinkwa se-silicon ngasinye siyahlukahluka kuye ngohlobo nosayizi.Ngo-2021, ukukhishwa kwe-p-type 166mm yesayizi yesikwele se-monocrystalline izingcezu ezingaba yizicucu ezingama-64 ngekhilogremu ngayinye, futhi ukuphuma kweziyingo zesikwele se-polycrystalline cishe izingcezu ezingama-59.Phakathi kwe-p-type single crystal silicon wafers, ukukhishwa kwezinduku zesikwele eziyi-158.75mm zosayizi we-monocrystalline cishe izingcezu ezingama-70 ngekhilogremu ngayinye, ukuphuma kohlobo lwe-p-type 182mm usayizi we-crystal square rods cishe izingcezu ezingama-53 ikhilogremu ngayinye, futhi ukuphuma kwe-p -uhlobo 210mm usayizi single crystal izinduku kilogram imayelana 53 izingcezu.Ukukhishwa kwebha yesikwele cishe izingcezu ezingu-40.Kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2030, ukucwenga okuqhubekayo kwama-wafers e-silicon ngokungangabazeki kuzoholela ekwenyukeni kwenani lezinduku/izingotshi ze-silicon zevolumu efanayo.Ububanzi obuncane bebha ye-diamond wire busbar kanye nosayizi wezinhlayiyana ezimaphakathi nakho kuzosiza ekunciphiseni ukulahlekelwa kokusika, ngaleyo ndlela kwandise inani lama-wafers akhiqizwayo.ubuningi.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2025 no-2030, ukukhishwa kwe-p-type 166mm size monocrystalline square rods cishe izingcezu ezingu-71 nezingu-78 ngekhilogremu ngayinye, futhi ukukhishwa kwe-ingots yesikwele se-polycrystalline cishe izingcezu ezingu-62 nezingu-62, ngenxa yemakethe ephansi. isabelo samawafa e-polycrystalline silicon Kunzima ukubangela inqubekelaphambili ebalulekile yezobuchwepheshe.Kunomehluko emandleni ezinhlobo ezahlukene kanye nosayizi wama-wafers we-silicon.Ngokwedatha yesimemezelo yamandla aphakathi kwama-silicon wafers angu-158.75mm acishe abe ngu-5.8W/ucezu, amandla amaphakathi osayizi we-silicon wafers angu-166mm acishe abe ngu-6.25W/ucezu, futhi amandla amaphakathi ama-silicon wafers angu-182mm angaba ngu-6.25W/ucezu. .Amandla amaphakathi osayizi we-silicon wafer acishe abe ngu-7.49W/ucezu, futhi amandla amaphakathi osayizi we-silicon wafer ongu-210mm angaba ngu-10W/ucezu.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ama-wafers e-silicon athuthuke kancane kancane abheke usayizi omkhulu, futhi usayizi omkhulu uvumela ukukhulisa amandla e-chip eyodwa, ngaleyo ndlela kuncishiswe izindleko ezingezona i-silicon zamaseli.Kodwa-ke, ukulungiswa kosayizi wamawafa e-silicon nakho kudinga ukucabangela izindaba zokumatanisa ezikhuphuka nomfula ezansi nomfula, ikakhulukazi umthwalo nezinkinga zamanje eziphezulu.Njengamanje, kunamakamu amabili emakethe mayelana nesiqondiso sokuthuthukiswa kwesikhathi esizayo sosayizi we-silicon wafer, okungukuthi usayizi we-182mm nosayizi wama-210mm.Isiphakamiso se-182mm ngokuyinhloko sisuka kumbono wokuhlanganiswa kwemboni eqondile, ngokusekelwe ekucatshangelweni kokufakwa nokuthuthwa kwamaseli e-photovoltaic, amandla nokusebenza kahle kwamamojula, kanye nokubambisana phakathi komfula okhuphukayo nophansi;kuyilapho i-210mm isuka kumbono wezindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nezindleko zesistimu.Ukukhishwa kwama-silicon wafers angu-210mm kukhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-15% kunqubo yokudweba induku yesithando somlilo esisodwa, izindleko zokukhiqiza ibhethri eliphansi komfula zehliswa cishe ngo-0.02 yuan/W, futhi izindleko eziphelele zokwakhiwa kwesiteshi sikagesi zehliswa cishe ngo-0.1 yuan/ W.Eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, kulindeleke ukuthi ama-wafers e-silicon anobukhulu obungaphansi kwe-166mm azosuswa kancane kancane;izinkinga zokuqhathanisa ezikhuphuka nomfula ezansi nomfula zama-silicon wafers angu-210mm zizoxazululwa kancane kancane, futhi izindleko zizoba yisici esibaluleke kakhulu esithinta ukutshalwa kwezimali nokukhiqizwa kwamabhizinisi.Ngakho-ke, isabelo semakethe sama-silicon wafers angu-210mm sizokhula.Ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo;I-silicon wafer engu-182mm izoba usayizi ojwayelekile emakethe ngenxa yezinzuzo zayo ekukhiqizeni okuhlanganisiwe okuqondile, kodwa ngokuthuthukiswa okuphumelelayo kobuchwepheshe bokufaka i-silicon wafer yama-210mm, i-182mm izovuma.Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunzima ukuthi ama-wafers angama-silicon amakhulu asetshenziswe kabanzi emakethe eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, ngoba izindleko zabasebenzi kanye nengozi yokufakwa kwama-silicone wafers amakhulu azokhula kakhulu, okunzima ukukhutshazwa ukonga ezindlekweni zokukhiqiza kanye nezindleko zesistimu..Ngo-2021, osayizi be-silicon wafer emakethe bafaka phakathi u-156.75mm, 157mm, 158.75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, njll. Phakathi kwabo, ubukhulu buka-158.75mm kanye no-166mm babalelwa ku-50% wengqikithi, kanye nosayizi ongu-56mm. yehle yaba ngu-5%, ezoshintshwa kancane kancane esikhathini esizayo;I-166mm yisixazululo esikhulu kunazo zonke esingathuthukiswa kumugqa wokukhiqiza webhethri okhona, ozoba usayizi omkhulu kunayo yonke eminyakeni emibili edlule.Ngokuphathelene nosayizi woshintsho, kulindeleke ukuthi isabelo semakethe sibe ngaphansi kuka-2% ngo-2030;usayizi ohlanganisiwe we-182mm kanye no-210mm uzoba ngama-45% ngo-2021, futhi isabelo semakethe sizokhula ngokushesha esikhathini esizayo.Kulindeleke ukuthi inani eliphelele lemakethe ngo-2030 lidlule kuma-98%.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, isabelo semakethe se-silicon ye-monocrystalline siqhubekile nokukhula, futhi sithathe isikhundla esijwayelekile emakethe.Kusukela ngo-2012 kuya ku-2021, ingxenye ye-silicon ye-monocrystalline ikhuphuke isuka ngaphansi kwama-20% yaya ku-93.3%, ukukhuphuka okukhulu.Ngo-2018, ama-silicon wafers emakethe ikakhulukazi ama-silicon wafers e-polycrystalline, abiza ngaphezu kwama-50%.Isizathu esiyinhloko ukuthi izinzuzo zobuchwepheshe ze-monocrystalline silicon wafers azikwazi ukumboza ukonakala kwezindleko.Kusukela ngo-2019, njengoba ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwe-photoelectric kwama-wafers e-silicon e-monocrystalline kuye kwedlula kakhulu lokho kwama-wafers e-polycrystalline silicon, kanye nezindleko zokukhiqiza ama-wafers e-monocrystalline silicon aqhubekile nokwehla ngenqubekela phambili yezobuchwepheshe, isabelo semakethe sama-wafers e-silicon e-monocrystalline siqhubekile nokukhula, siba. okujwayelekile emakethe.umkhiqizo.Kulindeleke ukuthi ingxenye yama-silicon wafers e-monocrystalline izofinyelela cishe ku-96% ngo-2025, futhi isabelo semakethe sama-silicon wafers e-monocrystalline sizofinyelela ku-97.7% ngo-2030. (Umthombo wombiko: I-Future Think Tank)
1.3.Amabhethri: Amabhethri e-PERC abusa imakethe, futhi ukuthuthukiswa kwamabhethri ohlobo lwe-n kunyusa izinga lomkhiqizo.
Isixhumanisi esimaphakathi sochungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic sihlanganisa amaseli e-photovoltaic namamojula we-photovoltaic cell.Ukucutshungulwa kwama-wafers e-silicon kumaseli kuyisinyathelo esibaluleke kakhulu ekufezeni ukuguqulwa kwe-photoelectric.Kuthatha cishe izinyathelo eziyisikhombisa ukucubungula iseli elivamile elivela kusinkwa se-silicon.Okokuqala, faka i-silicon wafer ku-hydrofluoric acid ukuze ukhiqize isakhiwo se-suede esifana nephiramidi ebusweni baso, ngaleyo ndlela unciphise ukubukeka kokukhanya kwelanga nokwandisa ukumuncwa kokukhanya;okwesibili i-Phosphorus isakazwa phezu kolunye uhlangothi lwe-silicon wafer ukuze yakhe i-PN junction, futhi ikhwalithi yayo ithinta ngokuqondile ukusebenza kahle kweseli;okwesithathu ukususa i-PN junction eyakhiwe ohlangothini lwe-silicon wafer ngesikhathi sesiteji sokusabalalisa ukuvimbela ukujikeleza okufushane kweseli;Ungqimba lwefilimu ye-silicon nitride luboshwe ohlangothini lapho kwakhiwa khona i-PN junction ukuze kuncishiswe ukubonakaliswa kokukhanya futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo kwandise ukusebenza kahle;okwesihlanu ukuphrinta ama-electrode ensimbi ngaphambili nangemuva kwe-silicon wafer ukuqoqa abathwali abambalwa abakhiqizwe ama-photovoltaics;Isekethe ephrintiwe esigabeni sokuphrinta i-sintered futhi yakhiwe, futhi ihlanganiswe ne-silicon wafer, okungukuthi, iseli;ekugcineni, amaseli anamandla ahlukene ahlukaniswa.
Amaseli e-crystalline silicon ngokuvamile enziwa ngamawafa e-silicon njengama-substrates, futhi angahlukaniswa abe amaseli ohlobo lwe-p namaseli ohlobo lwe-n ngokusho kohlobo lwamawafa e-silicon.Phakathi kwawo, amaseli ohlobo lwe-n anekhono eliphezulu lokuguqulwa futhi kancane kancane ashintsha amaseli ohlobo lwe-p eminyakeni yamuva.Ama-silicon wafers ohlobo lwe-P enziwa nge-doping silicon ene-boron, futhi ama-silicon wafers ohlobo lwe-n enziwe nge-phosphorus.Ngakho-ke, ukugxila kwe-boron element ku-n-uhlobo lwe-silicon wafer kuphansi, ngaleyo ndlela kuvimbela ukuhlangana kwe-boron-oxygen complexes, ukuthuthukisa impilo yenkampani yenkampani encane yezinto ze-silicon, futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo, akukho ukuncishiswa okubangelwa isithombe. ebhethrini.Ngaphezu kwalokho, abathwali abambalwa bohlobo lwe-n bayizimbobo, abathwali abambalwa bohlobo lwe-p bangama-electron, futhi ingxenye enqamulayo yama-athomu amaningi okungcola emigodini incane kunaleyo yama-electron.Ngakho-ke, impilo yenkampani yenethiwekhi encane yeseli yohlobo lwe-n iphezulu futhi izinga lokuguqulwa kwe-photoelectric liphezulu.Ngokusho kwedatha yelabhorethri, umkhawulo ophezulu wokuguqulwa kokusebenza kahle kwamaseli ohlobo lwe-p ungama-24.5%, futhi ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwamaseli ohlobo lwe-n kufika ku-28.7%, ngakho-ke amaseli ohlobo lwe-n amelela isiqondiso sokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe besikhathi esizayo.Ngo-2021, amaseli ohlobo lwe-n (ikakhulukazi afaka amaseli e-heterojunction kanye namaseli e-TOPCon) anezindleko eziphakeme kakhulu, futhi isikali sokukhiqiza ngobuningi sisesincane.Isabelo semakethe samanje sicishe sibe ngu-3%, ngokuyisisekelo sifana nalolo ngo-2020.
Ngo-2021, ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwamaseli ohlobo lwe-n kuzothuthukiswa kakhulu, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kube nendawo eyengeziwe yenqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo.Ngo-2021, ukukhiqizwa okukhulu kwamaseli we-p-type monocrystalline kuzosebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-PERC, futhi ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa okujwayelekile kuzofinyelela ku-23.1%, ukukhuphuka kwamaphesenti angu-0.3 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2020;ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwamaseli e-silicon amnyama e-polycrystalline asebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-PERC kuzofinyelela ku-21.0%, uma kuqhathaniswa no-2020. Ukunyuka konyaka ngamaphesenti angu-0.2;ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kahle kwamaseli e-polycrystalline black silicon akunamandla, ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa ngo-2021 kuzoba cishe u-19.5%, kuphela ngamaphesenti angu-0.1 aphezulu, futhi isikhala sokuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kwesikhathi esizayo sinqunyelwe;isilinganiso sokusebenza sokuguqulwa kwamaseli e-ingot monocrystalline PERC angama-22.4%, okungamaphesenti angu-0.7 aphansi kunalawo amaseli e-monocrystalline PERC;isilinganiso sokuguqulwa kokusebenza kahle kwamaseli we-n-type TOPCon afinyelela ku-24%, futhi isilinganiso sokuguqulwa kokusebenza kahle kwamaseli we-heterojunction sifinyelela ku-24.2%, kokubili okuthuthukisiwe kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa no-2020, futhi ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwamaseli e-IBC kufinyelela ku-24.2%.Ngokuthuthuka kobuchwepheshe esikhathini esizayo, ubuchwepheshe bebhethri obufana ne-TBC ne-HBC bungaqhubeka nokuthuthuka.Ngokuzayo, ngokwehliswa kwezindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwesivuno, amabhethri ohlobo lwe-n azoba enye yezinkomba eziphambili zokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bebhethri.
Ngokombono womzila wobuchwepheshe bebhethri, ukubuyekezwa okuphindaphindiwe kobuchwepheshe bebhethri ngokuyinhloko kudlule ku-BSF, PERC, TOPCon ngokusekelwe ekuthuthukisweni kwe-PERC, ne-HJT, ubuchwepheshe obusha obuchitha i-PERC;I-TOPCon ingaphinde ihlanganiswe ne-IBC ukuze yakhe i-TBC, futhi i-HJT ingabuye ihlanganiswe ne-IBC ibe i-HBC.Amaseli e-monocrystalline ohlobo lwe-P ikakhulukazi asebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-PERC, amaseli e-polycrystalline ohlobo lwe-p ahlanganisa amangqamuzana e-polycrystalline amnyama e-silicon namaseli e-ingot monocrystalline, lokhu okugcina kubhekisela ekwengezweni kwamakristalu embewu ye-monocrystalline ngesisekelo senqubo evamile ye-polycrystalline ingot, ukuqina kokuqondisa Ngemva kwalokho, a Isikwele se-silicon ingot siyakhiwa, futhi isicwecwana se-silicon esixutshwe nekristalu eyodwa kanye ne-polycrystalline yenziwa ngochungechunge lwezinqubo zokucubungula.Ngenxa yokuthi empeleni isebenzisa umzila wokulungiselela i-polycrystalline, ifakiwe esigabeni samaseli e-polycrystalline ohlobo lwe-p.Amaseli ohlobo lwe-n ikakhulukazi ahlanganisa amaseli e-TOPCon monocrystalline, amaseli e-HJT monocrystalline kanye namaseli e-IBC monocrystalline.Ngo-2021, imigqa emisha yokukhiqiza ngobuningi isazobuswa imigqa yokukhiqiza amaseli e-PERC, futhi isabelo semakethe samaseli e-PERC sizokwenyuka sifinyelele ku-91.2%.Njengoba isidingo somkhiqizo wamaphrojekthi angaphandle nasendlini sigxile emikhiqizweni esebenza kahle kakhulu, isabelo semakethe samabhethri e-BSF sizokwehla sisuka ku-8.8% siye ku-5% ngo-2021.
1.4.Amamojula: Izindleko zamaseli zibala ingxenye enkulu, futhi amandla amamojula ancike kumaseli
Izinyathelo zokukhiqiza zamamojula we-photovoltaic ikakhulukazi zihlanganisa ukuxhumeka kwamaseli kanye ne-lamination, futhi amaseli alandisa ingxenye enkulu yezindleko eziphelele zemodyuli.Njengoba amandla amanje kanye ne-voltage yeseli eyodwa kuncane kakhulu, amaseli adinga ukuxhunywa ngamabha amabhasi.Lapha, axhunywe ochungechungeni ukwandisa i-voltage, bese exhunywe ngokuhambisana ukuze athole izinga eliphezulu, bese ingilazi ye-photovoltaic, i-EVA noma i-POE, i-Battery Sheet, i-EVA noma i-POE, ishidi elingemuva livalwa futhi licindezelwe ngokushisa ngendlela ethile. , futhi ekugcineni ivikelwe uhlaka lwe-aluminium kanye nonqenqema lokuvala i-silicone.Ngokombono wokwakhiwa kwezindleko zokukhiqiza, izindleko zempahla zibalelwa ku-75%, ezithatha isikhundla esiyinhloko, zilandelwa yizindleko zokukhiqiza, izindleko zokusebenza kanye nezindleko zabasebenzi.Izindleko zezinto ziholwa yizindleko zamaseli.Ngokwezimemezelo ezivela ezinkampanini eziningi, amaseli alandisa mayelana ne-2/3 yezindleko eziphelele zamamojula we-photovoltaic.
Amamojula we-Photovoltaic avame ukuhlukaniswa ngokusho kohlobo lweseli, usayizi, kanye nenani.Kukhona umehluko emandleni amamojula ahlukene, kodwa wonke asesigabeni esikhulayo.Amandla ayinkomba eyinhloko yamamojula e-photovoltaic, amele ikhono lemojuli ukuguqula amandla elanga abe ugesi.Kungabonakala kusukela kuzibalo zamandla zezinhlobo ezahlukene zamamojula we-photovoltaic ukuthi lapho ubukhulu nenani lamaseli kumojula zifana, amandla e-module yi-n-type single crystal> p-type single crystal> i-polycrystalline;Uma kukhulu usayizi nobuningi, amandla emojuli amakhulu;kumamojula we-TOPCon wekristalu eyodwa kanye namamojula we-heterojunction wokucaciswa okufanayo, amandla okugcina makhulu kunawangaphambili.Ngokwesibikezelo se-CPIA, amandla emojula azokhuphuka ngo-5-10W ngonyaka eminyakeni embalwa ezayo.Ukwengeza, ukupakishwa kwemojula kuzoletha ukulahlekelwa kwamandla athile, ikakhulukazi okuhlanganisa ukulahleka kokubona nokulahlekelwa kukagesi.Okwangaphambili kubangelwa ukungahambi kahle kokudluliswa nokungaboni ngasolinye kwezinto zokupakisha ezifana nengilazi ye-photovoltaic ne-EVA, futhi lokhu kokugcina kubhekisela ekusetshenzisweni kwamaseli elanga ochungechungeni.Ukulahlekelwa kwesifunda okubangelwa ukumelana kweribhoni yokushisela kanye nebha yebhasi ngokwayo, kanye nokulahlekelwa ukungafani kwamanje okubangelwa ukuxhumana okuhambisanayo kwamaseli, ukulahleka kwamandla okuphelele kwama-akhawunti amabili cishe ku-8%.
1.5.Umthamo ofakiwe we-Photovoltaic: Izinqubomgomo zamazwe ahlukahlukene ziqhutshwa ngokusobala, futhi kunesikhala esikhulu somthamo omusha ofakiwe esikhathini esizayo.
Umhlaba usufinyelele ukuvumelana ngokukhishelwa ngaphandle kwe-net zero ngaphansi kwenhloso yokuvikelwa kwemvelo, futhi umnotho wamaphrojekthi we-photovoltaic we-superimposed avele kancane kancane.Amazwe abheka ngenkuthalo ukuthuthukiswa kokuphehlwa kwamandla kagesi avuselelekayo.Eminyakeni yakamuva, amazwe emhlabeni jikelele enze izibopho zokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni.Iningi labakhiqizi begesi ebamba ukushisa bakha izinhloso ezifanayo zamandla avuselelekayo, futhi umthamo ofakiwe wamandla avuselelekayo mkhulu.Ngokusekelwe ekuqondisweni kokulawula izinga lokushisa okungu-1.5℃, i-IRENA ibikezela ukuthi umthamo wamandla avuselelekayo afakiwe emhlabeni wonke uzofinyelela ku-10.8TW ngo-2030. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokusho kwedatha ye-WOODMac, inani lezinga lezindleko zikagesi (LCOE) lokukhiqizwa kwamandla elanga e-China, e-India, i-United States namanye amazwe asevele aphansi kunawo wonke amandla ezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi, futhi azokwehla nakakhulu esikhathini esizayo.Ukukhuthazwa okusebenzayo kwezinqubomgomo emazweni ahlukahlukene kanye nezomnotho zokuphehla amandla e-photovoltaic kuye kwaholela ekwenyukeni okuqhubekayo komthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaics emhlabeni nase-China eminyakeni yamuva.Kusukela ngo-2012 kuya ku-2021, umthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaics emhlabeni uzokhuphuka usuka ku-104.3GW uye ku-849.5GW, futhi umthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaics e-China uzokhuphuka usuka ku-6.7GW uye ku-307GW, ukwanda izikhathi ezingaphezu kuka-44.Ngaphezu kwalokho, amandla e-photovoltaic e-China asanda kufakwa ahlanganisa ngaphezu kuka-20% womthamo ofakiwe womhlaba wonke.Ngo-2021, amandla e-photovoltaic aseShayina asanda kufakwa angu-53GW, athatha cishe u-40% wamandla asanda kufakwa emhlabeni.Lokhu kubangelwa ikakhulukazi ukusatshalaliswa ngobuningi nokufana kwemithombo yamandla okukhanya e-China, umfula othuthuke kahle nowehla nomfula, kanye nokwesekwa okuqinile kwezinqubomgomo zikazwelonke.Ngalesi sikhathi, i-China ibambe iqhaza elikhulu ekuphehleni amandla kagesi we-photovoltaic, futhi umthamo ofakiwe ohlanganisiwe uye waba ngaphansi kuka-6.5%.zishintshiwe zaba ngu-+36.14% ngesonto.
Ngokusekelwe ekuhlaziyeni okungenhla, i-CPIA inikeze isibikezelo sokufakwa okusha kwe-photovoltaic kusuka ngo-2022 kuya ku-2030 emhlabeni wonke.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngaphansi kokubili kwezimo ezibonisa ithemba kanye nezimo zokungaguquguquki, umthamo osanda kufakwa emhlabeni wonke ngo-2030 uzoba ngu-366 no-315GW ngokulandelana, futhi umthamo osanda kufakwa waseShayina uzoba ngu-128. , 105GW.Ngezansi sizobikezela isidingo se-polysilicon ngokusekelwe esikalini somthamo osanda kufakwa unyaka ngamunye.
1.6.Funa isibikezelo se-polysilicon yezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-photovoltaic
Kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2030, ngokusekelwe esibikezelweni se-CPIA sokufakwa kwe-PV okusanda kwenyuka emhlabeni wonke ngaphansi kwezimo ezibonisa ithemba nezingalindelekile, isidingo se-polysilicon yezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-PV singabikezelwa.Amaseli ayisinyathelo esibalulekile sokubona ukuguqulwa kwe-photoelectric, futhi amawafa e-silicon ayizinto eziyisisekelo zokusetshenziswa zamaseli kanye nomfula oqondile we-polysilicon, ngakho-ke ayingxenye ebalulekile yokubikezela kwesidingo se-polysilicon.Inombolo enesisindo yezingcezu ngekhilogremu ngayinye yezinti ze-silicon nezingothi zingabalwa kusukela enanini lezingcezu ngekhilogremu kanye nesabelo semakethe sezinti ze-silicon nezingothi.Khona-ke, ngokwamandla nesabelo semakethe samawafa e-silicon anosayizi abahlukene, amandla anesisindo samawafa e-silicon angatholakala, bese inani elidingekayo lama-silicon wafers lingalinganiswa ngokuvumelana nomthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa.Okulandelayo, isisindo sezinduku ze-silicon ezidingekayo nama-ingot singatholwa ngokuya ngobudlelwane bobuningi phakathi kwenani lama-wafers e-silicon nenombolo enesisindo yezinduku ze-silicon nama-silicon ingots ngekhilogremu.Ngokuqhubekayo kuhlanganiswe nokusetshenziswa kwe-silicon enesisindo kwezinduku ze-silicon/i-silicon ingots, isidingo se-polysilicon yomthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa singatholakala ekugcineni.Ngokwemiphumela yesibikezelo, isidingo somhlaba wonke se-polysilicon sokufakwa okusha kwe-photovoltaic eminyakeni emihlanu edlule sizoqhubeka sikhuphuka, sikhuphuke ngo-2027, bese sehla kancane eminyakeni emithathu ezayo.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngaphansi kwezimo ezinethemba nezinhlekele ngo-2025, isidingo sonyaka sonyaka se-polysilicon yokufakwa kwe-photovoltaic sizoba amathani angu-1,108,900 kanye namathani angu-907,800 ngokulandelana, futhi isidingo somhlaba wonke se-polysilicon yezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-photovoltaic ngo-2030 sizoba yi-1,042,100 yezimo ezilindelekile kanye namathani angama-100. ., amathani angu-896 900.Ngokusho kweChinaingxenye ye-global photovoltaic efakwe umthamo,Isidingo saseChina se-polysilicon yokusetshenziswa kwe-photovoltaic ngo-2025kulindeleke ukuthi kube amathani angu-369,600 kanye namathani angu-302,600 ngokulandelana ngaphansi kwezimo ezibonisa ithemba nezinhlekele, kanye namathani angu-739,300 kanye namathani angu-605,200 phesheya kwezilwandle ngokulandelana.
2, Isidingo sokuphela kwe-Semiconductor: Isilinganiso sincane kakhulu kunesidingo ensimini ye-photovoltaic, futhi ukukhula kwesikhathi esizayo kungalindelwa
Ngaphezu kokwenza amaseli e-photovoltaic, i-polysilicon ingasetshenziswa futhi njengento eluhlaza yokwenza ama-chips futhi isetshenziswe ensimini ye-semiconductor, engahlukaniswa ngokukhiqiza izimoto, i-electronics yezimboni, ukuxhumana kwe-electronics, izinto zikagesi zasendlini kanye neminye imikhakha.Inqubo esuka ku-polysilicon kuya ku-chip ihlukaniswe kakhulu ngezinyathelo ezintathu.Okokuqala, i-polysilicon idonselwa kuma-silicon ingots e-monocrystalline, bese inqunywa ibe ama-silicone wafers amancane.Ama-wafers we-silicon akhiqizwa ngochungechunge lwemisebenzi yokugaya, ukuthungatha nokupholisha., okuyimpahla eyisisekelo yemboni ye-semiconductor.Ekugcineni, i-silicon wafer iyasikwa futhi i-laser iqoshwe ezakhiweni zesekethe ehlukahlukene ukwenza imikhiqizo ye-chip enezici ezithile.Amawafa e-silicon avamile ikakhulukazi ahlanganisa amawafa aphucuziwe, ama-epitaxial wafers namawafa e-SOI.I-wafer epholishiwe iyimpahla yokukhiqiza i-chip enobucwebe obuphakeme obutholakala ngokupholisha iwafa ye-silicon ukuze kususwe ungqimba olulimele ngaphezulu, olungasetshenziswa ngokuqondile ukwenza ama-chips, ama-epitaxial wafers namawafa we-silicon e-SOI.Ama-wafers e-Epitaxial atholakala ngokukhula kwe-epitaxial kwamawafa aphucuziwe, kuyilapho ama-wafers e-SOI silicon enziwa nge-bonding noma ngokufakwa kwe-ion kuma-wafer substrates aphucuziwe, futhi inqubo yokulungiselela inzima.
Ngesidingo se-polysilicon ohlangothini lwe-semiconductor ngo-2021, kuhlanganiswe nesibikezelo se-ejensi sezinga lokukhula komkhakha we-semiconductor eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, isidingo se-polysilicon emkhakheni we-semiconductor kusuka ngo-2022 kuya ku-2025 singalinganiselwa cishe.Ngo-2021, ukukhiqizwa kwe-polysilicon yezinga le-elekthronikhi emhlabeni wonke kuzothatha cishe u-6% wengqikithi yokukhiqizwa kwe-polysilicon, futhi i-polysilicon yebanga lelanga kanye ne-silicon eyimbudumbudu izobalelwa cishe ku-94%.Iningi le-polysilicon ye-electronic-grade isetshenziswa emkhakheni we-semiconductor, kanti enye i-polysilicon isetshenziswa ngokuyisisekelo embonini ye-photovoltaic..Ngakho-ke, kungacatshangwa ukuthi inani le-polysilicon elisetshenziswe embonini ye-semiconductor ngo-2021 lingaba amathani angama-37,000.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokwezinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lesikhathi esizayo lemboni ye-semiconductor ebikezelwe yi-FortuneBusiness Insights, isidingo se-polysilicon yokusetshenziswa kwe-semiconductor sizokhuphuka ngenani lonyaka lika-8.6% kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2025. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2025, isidingo i-polysilicon emkhakheni we-semiconductor izoba ngamathani angama-51,500.(Umthombo wombiko: I-Future Think Tank)
3, Ukungenisa nokuthekelisa kwe-Polysilicon: ukungenisa nokuthekelisa kudlula kude ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kanti iJalimane neMalaysia zibalelwa ngenani eliphakeme
Ngo-2021, cishe u-18.63% wesidingo se-polysilicon sase-China sizovela ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe, futhi isikali sempahla ephumayo sidlula kude isikali sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.Kusukela ngo-2017 kuya ku-2021, iphethini yokungenisa nokuthekelisa ye-polysilicon ibuswa ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, okungenzeka kube ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla semboni ye-photovoltaic esithuthuke ngokushesha eminyakeni yamuva, futhi isidingo sayo se-polysilicon singaphezu kuka-94% we isidingo esiphelele;Ukwengeza, inkampani ayikakabi yingcweti yobuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza be-polysilicon ephezulu ye-electronic-grade, ngakho-ke enye i-polysilicon edingwa imboni yesifunda ehlanganisiwe isadinga ukuthembela ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.Ngokusho kwedatha yeSilicon Industry Branch, umthamo wokungenisa uqhubekile nokwehla ngo-2019 nango-2020. Isizathu esibalulekile sokwehla kokungeniswa kwe-polysilicon ngo-2019 kwaba ukwenyuka okukhulu kwamandla okukhiqiza, okukhuphuke kusuka kumathani angama-388,000 ngo-2018 kuya kumathani angama-452,000. ngo-2019. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-OCI, REC, HANWHA Ezinye izinkampani zaphesheya kwezilwandle, njengezinkampani zaphesheya kwezilwandle, zihoxile embonini ye-polysilicon ngenxa yokulahlekelwa, ngakho-ke ukuncika kokungenisa kwe-polysilicon kuphansi kakhulu;nakuba amandla okukhiqiza engazange akhule ngo-2020, umthelela walesi sifo ubangele ukubambezeleka ekwakhiweni kwamaphrojekthi we-photovoltaic, futhi inani le-polysilicon oda liye lehla ngesikhathi esifanayo.Ngo-2021, imakethe ye-photovoltaic yaseChina izokhula ngokushesha, futhi ukusetshenziswa okusobala kwe-polysilicon kuzofinyelela kumathani angama-613,000, okuqhubekisela phambili ivolumu yokungenisa.Eminyakeni emihlanu edlule, umthamo wokungenisa we-polysilicon inetha laseChina ubuphakathi kwamathani ayi-90,000 nezi-140,000, okungamathani ayi-103,800 ngo-2021.
Ukuthengwa kwe-polysilicon yaseChina ikakhulukazi kuvela eJalimane, eMalaysia, eJapane naseTaiwan, eShayina, futhi inani eliphelele lempahla ethengwayo evela kulawa mazwe amane izobalelwa ku-90.51% ngo-2021. Cishe u-45% we-polysilicon yaseChina ethengwayo evela eJalimane, u-26% evela eMalaysia, I-13.5% evela e-Japan, kanye ne-6% evela e-Taiwan.IJalimane ingumnikazi we-polysilicon giant WACKER, okuwumthombo omkhulu kunayo yonke we-polysilicon yaphesheya, ebalwa ku-12.7% wesamba somthamo wokukhiqiza womhlaba wonke ngo-2021;I-Malaysia inenani elikhulu lemigqa yokukhiqiza ye-polysilicon evela eNkampanini ye-OCI yaseNingizimu Korea, ephuma kulayini wokuqala wokukhiqiza e-Malaysia we-TOKUYAMA, inkampani yaseJapane etholwe yi-OCI.Kunamafekthri namafekthri athile i-OCI awasusa eSouth Korea aya eMalaysia.Isizathu sokuthutha ukuthi iMalaysia inikeza indawo yefekthri yamahhala futhi izindleko zikagesi zingaphansi kwengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu kuneyaseNingizimu Korea;I-Japan ne-Taiwan, i-China ine-TOKUYAMA, i-GET nezinye izinkampani, ezithatha ingxenye enkulu yokukhiqizwa kwe-polysilicon.Indawo.Ngo-2021, ukukhishwa kwe-polysilicon kuzoba amathani angu-492,000, lapho amandla e-photovoltaic asanda kufakwa kanye nesidingo sokukhiqiza ama-chip kuzoba amathani angu-206,400 kanye namathani angu-1,500 ngokulandelana, futhi amathani angu-284,100 asele azosetshenziselwa ikakhulukazi ukucubungula nokuthunyelwa phesheya kwezilwandle.Kuzixhumanisi ezingezansi ze-polysilicon, ama-wafers e-silicon, amaseli namamojula athunyelwa kakhulu kwamanye amazwe, phakathi kwawo ukuthunyelwa kwamamojula kuvelele kakhulu.Ngo-2021, ama-silicon wafers ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-4.64 kanye namaseli e-photovoltaic ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-3.2kuthunyelwa ngaphandlekusuka e-China, nesamba sokuthekelisa se-22.6GW kanye ne-10.3GW ngokulandelanayo, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe amamojula we-photovoltaic yi-98.5GW, nempahla embalwa kakhulu evela kwamanye amazwe.Mayelana nokwakhiwa kwenani lokuthekelisa, ukuthunyelwa kwemojula ngo-2021 kuzofinyelela ku-US $ 24.61 billion, okubalelwa ku-86%, kulandelwe amawafa e-silicon namabhethri.Ngo-2021, ukuphuma komhlaba wonke kwama-silicon wafers, amaseli e-photovoltaic, namamojula we-photovoltaic kuzofinyelela ku-97.3%, 85.1%, kanye no-82.3%, ngokulandelana.Kulindeleke ukuthi imboni ye-photovoltaic yomhlaba wonke iqhubeke nokugxila e-China phakathi neminyaka emithathu ezayo, futhi ukukhishwa nomthamo wokuthekelisa wesixhumanisi ngasinye kuzoba mkhulu.Ngakho-ke, kulinganiselwa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2025, inani le-polysilicon elisetshenziselwa ukucubungula nokukhiqiza imikhiqizo engaphansi komfula kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lizokhula kancane kancane.Kulinganiselwa ngokukhipha ukukhiqizwa phesheya kwezilwandle kwesidingo se-polysilicon yaphesheya.Ngo-2025, i-polysilicon ekhiqizwa ngokucutshungulwa emikhiqizweni engezansi izolinganiselwa ukuthi izothumela amathani angama-583,000 emazweni angaphandle isuka eChina.
4, Isifinyezo kanye ne-Outlook
Isidingo se-polysilicon yomhlaba wonke sigxile kakhulu emkhakheni we-photovoltaic, futhi isidingo senkambu ye-semiconductor akuwona umyalo wobukhulu.Isidingo se-polysilicon siqhutshwa ukufakwa kwe-photovoltaic, futhi kancane kancane sidluliselwa ku-polysilicon ngesixhumanisi samamojula we-photovoltaic-cell-wafer, okukhiqiza isidingo sayo.Ngokuzayo, ngokunwetshwa komthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaic womhlaba, isidingo se-polysilicon ngokuvamile sinethemba.Ngethemba, i-China kanye naphesheya kwezilwandle ukufakwa okusha kwe-PV okubangela isidingo se-polysilicon ngo-2025 kuzoba ngu-36.96GW kanye no-73.93GW ngokulandelanayo, futhi isidingo ngaphansi kwezimo zokungagcini sizofinyelela ku-30.24GW kanye no-60.49GW ngokulandelanayo.Ngo-2021, ukuhlinzekwa kwe-polysilicon emhlabeni jikelele kanye nesidingo kuzoba nzima, okuholela ezindlekweni eziphezulu ze-polysilicon emhlabeni jikelele.Lesi simo singase siqhubeke kuze kube ngu-2022, futhi kancane kancane siphendukele esigabeni sokuhlinzekwa okuxekethile ngemva kuka-2023. Engxenyeni yesibili ka-2020, umthelela walolu bhubhane waqala ukuba buthaka, futhi ukwanda kokukhiqizwa komfula kwaqhubezela isidingo se-polysilicon, futhi ezinye izinkampani ezihamba phambili zahlela. ukwandisa ukukhiqiza.Kodwa-ke, umjikelezo wokunwetshwa ongaphezu konyaka owodwa nengxenye ubangele ukukhululwa kwamandla okukhiqiza ekupheleni kuka-2021 no-2022, okuholele ekukhuphukeni ngo-4.24% ngo-2021. Kunegebe lokuhlinzeka ngamathani angu-10,000, ngakho-ke amanani akhuphukile. ngokucijile.Kubikezelwa ukuthi ngo-2022, ngaphansi kwezimo ezinethemba futhi ezilondolozayo zomthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaic, igebe lokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo lizoba amathani -156,500 namathani angu-2,400 ngokulandelana, futhi ukunikezwa okuphelele kusazoba sesimweni sokutholakala okuncane.Ngo-2023 nangale kwalokho, amaphrojekthi amasha aqale ukwakhiwa ekupheleni kuka-2021 nasekuqaleni kuka-2022 azoqala ukukhiqiza futhi azuze ukukhuphuka kwamandla okukhiqiza.Ukunikezwa nokufunwa kuzoncipha kancane kancane, futhi amanani angase abe ngaphansi kwengcindezi ephansi.Ekulandeleni, ukunakekelwa kufanele kukhokhwe kumthelela wempi yaseRussia-Ukraine kuphethini yamandla omhlaba wonke, okungase kushintshe uhlelo lomhlaba wonke lomthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa, ozothinta isidingo se-polysilicon.
(Le ndatshana ingeyereferensi yamakhasimende e-UrbanMines kuphela futhi ayimeli noma yisiphi iseluleko sokutshalwa kwezimali)